In 2012, I watched consulting firms die because they couldn’t let go of waterfall.

Not literally die — though some did. But I watched them bleed. Slowly at first, then all at once. The firms that had built their entire delivery model around traditional project management, phase-gated releases, and armies of developers cranking out code to spec? They didn’t see it coming. Or worse — they saw it and dismissed it.

“Agile is a fad.” “It’s fine for startups, but enterprises need governance.” “Our clients aren’t asking for it.”

I heard all of it. And I watched those firms scramble to catch up while the ones that adapted early captured the market shift.

The Bet We Made

I was a General Manager at Magenic when the Agile wave hit. We had a choice: keep selling what we’d always sold, or figure out what clients were actually going to need in 18 months. Right or wrong, we bet on transformation. We repositioned our practice to deliver full Agile teams — not just developers who knew the methodology, but integrated Scrum teams with Product Owners, Scrum Masters, and a delivery cadence that clients had never experienced from a consulting partner.

It worked. We thrived while competitors struggled to retool.

But here’s the thing I learned from that experience: disruption follows patterns. The resistance sounds the same every time. The dismissive language. The “our clients aren’t asking for it” rationalization. The comfort of high utilization numbers masking the fact that you’re selling yesterday’s product.

If you’ve lived through one transformation, you start to recognize the opening credits when they roll again.

They’re rolling now.

The Signals Are Everywhere

The AI disruption hitting professional services firms isn’t a distant threat — it’s here. And the early signals look exactly like 2012.

Your pipeline feels different. Deals are taking longer. Clients are asking for fewer people on proposals. The “let’s wait and see” objection keeps coming up — but what they’re really saying is: “We’re not sure we need you anymore.”

Here’s why: your clients’ internal developers just got dramatically more productive. Copilot. Cursor. Claude. ChatGPT. The tools are everywhere, and they’re getting better every month. A team of five is now doing what took eight people twelve months ago. Enterprises aren’t cutting consulting budgets because money is tight — they’re cutting because their own people don’t need as much help.

The math is changing. And it’s not in your favor.

The Denial Sounds Familiar

I’ve talked to senior architects who dismiss AI-assisted development as “vibe coding for non-developers.” I’ve heard the objections: AI writes sloppy code, it doesn’t understand enterprise architecture, it’s a toy for prototypes.

Sound familiar?

“Agile is fine for startups, but enterprises need governance.”

Same energy. Same denial. Same career risk for people who don’t recognize the pattern.

The architects and senior developers who embrace AI — who learn to orchestrate agents instead of writing every line themselves — will be exponentially more valuable. Their 20 years of domain knowledge becomes the differentiator, not the liability. They become the ones teaching AI systems how to build enterprise-grade solutions.

The ones who dismiss it? They’ll be competing for a shrinking pool of traditional roles. And that pool is draining faster than most people realize.

Why I’m Writing This

I’m not selling you anything. I don’t have a product, a platform, or a vendor agenda. After 34 years in this industry — developer, architect, project manager, VP of Consulting, General Manager, CTO — I’m genuinely concerned for colleagues who may not see what’s coming.

I watched the Agile transformation unfold over five or six years. There was time to adapt. Time to retool. Time to figure it out.

This one is faster.

The firms that recognize the pattern now — that start repositioning their delivery models, retraining their people, and rethinking what they’re actually selling — will have an 18-24 month head start. Maybe less.

The ones that wait for clients to ask? They’ll be playing catch-up in a market that’s already moved on.

Look at Your Own Numbers

The bottom line is this: I’m not asking you to believe me. I’m asking you to look at your own numbers.

Look at your pipeline trends over the last six months. Look at the average team size on your proposals compared to two years ago. Look at how long deals are taking to close. Look at what your clients are saying — and what they’re not saying.

The question isn’t whether disruption is coming. It’s whether you’ll recognize it in time.

I’ve seen this movie before. I know how it ends for the firms that adapt — and for the ones that don’t.

Let’s make sure you’re in the first group.

John Doucette is the founder of The Disruption Brief, where he writes about the AI transformation reshaping IT professional services. With 34 years in the industry — from developer to CTO — he’s focused on helping PS firms navigate disruption before it’s too late. Connect with him on LinkedIn.